Sike! Vinyl Sales Are Actually Up 6.2%, Not Down 33% | Data (But Make It Music)

The physical music market is on track for a remarkable turnaround in 2024, set to experience its first year of overall growth in two decades. After years of decline, physical formats like vinyl, CDs, and even cassettes are making a comeback. This is driven by the ongoing strength of vinyl sales, the stabilization of CD sales, and new data showing that physical album sales grew by 3.2% in the first half of 2024, with over 8 million units sold, according to the Official Charts Company and BPI.

While vinyl has been consistently increasing for over 16 years, CD sales have long been the anchor dragging down physical formats. However, things are changing. CD sales are beginning to flatten out, even showing signs of growth, as ERA data earlier this year suggested they could be on the rise for the first time in two decades. Vinyl’s rise continues, contributing to an overall 11.5% increase in vinyl album sales year-to-date.

Interestingly, this growth has not been without its hiccups. Starting on October 14, 2024, several news outlets, including Yahoo and NME, reported a shocking 33 percent decline in U.S. vinyl sales based on Billboard’s "Market Watch" data, causing alarm in the industry. However, it was quickly revealed that the report was flawed due to an error in the updated sales tracking methodology. By October 15, Luminate, the data provider for Billboard, corrected the numbers, confirming that vinyl sales were actually up by 6.2 percent. This clarification reaffirmed what industry insiders like Warner Music Group’s Billy Fields had already noticed: vinyl is still on the rise.

Luminate, known as the gold standard for physical music sales reporting, made a major shift in their data collection process at the beginning of 2024. The new system counts actual sales from independent record stores instead of using extrapolated data based on sampling, a method that had been in place for over 30 years. The change initially caused confusion and frustration among independent store owners, leading some to even refuse to report data. Still, this new method provides a more accurate picture of the U.S. physical music market.

In Luminate’s mid-year report, they acknowledged that this change made it difficult to compare year-over-year trends due to a lack of historical data. Yet, they did provide insights into the health of the market, noting that independent record stores accounted for 40.1% of all U.S. vinyl sales in weeks 23-26 under the new methodology. Many record store owners argue that the true share is likely much higher, as not all stores have been reporting sales under the updated system.

Q4 is poised to push these trends even further, especially with Coldplay's Moon Music expected to dominate. Already amassing 175,000 physical sales, it could single-handedly drive the market past the 5.5 million additional units needed to secure overall growth in 2024, possibly even surpassing last year’s Q4 total of 5.7 million physical sales.

It's worth noting that 2023 was a tough year for physical formats, with a 1.1% decline in overall sales. But that’s now behind us, as 2024 is seeing positive momentum in both vinyl and CDs. The last time physical album sales resulted in a positive percentage was 2004, when sales rose by 2.6%. Today, it’s a mix of nostalgia, a resurgence in the value of owning music, and a shift in generational habits driving this comeback. A recent survey found that Gen Z is more likely than any other generation to embrace physical formats like vinyl, CDs, and even cassettes, breathing new life into what many had written off as dead formats.

Labels like Warner Music Group and record stores such as Josey Records in Dallas have seen an upward trend in sales across physical formats, with some stores expanding operations to meet demand. Josey Records’ co-owner, Luke Sardello, also noted a significant rise in CD sales, driven by a younger demographic than expected. And while vinyl remains the star of the physical music market, the growing interest in CDs and pre-owned products has helped solidify the comeback of physical media.

To summarise, physical music is back in the game. With major releases like Moon Music boosting sales and vinyl continuing its rise, 2024 is shaping up to be the year that physical formats remind everyone they’re far from obsolete. Even with data-reporting challenges, the overall trajectory is clear: physical music is not just surviving, it’s thriving.